Certified Production & Operations Manager (POM) Practice Exam

Which of the following methods is NOT included in forecasts based on judgment and opinion?

1. Second opinions

2. Delphi methods

3. Salesperson opinion

4. Executive opinion

The correct answer is: Second opinions

Forecasting based on judgment and opinion typically includes methods that leverage insights from various stakeholders to make predictions. The Delphi method, salesperson opinion, and executive opinion are all established techniques that utilize expert knowledge and subjective assessments to generate forecasts. The Delphi method involves multiple rounds of surveys where experts provide their opinions anonymously, allowing for collective intelligence to develop a more reliable forecast. Salesperson opinion taps into the frontline sales team's insights about market trends and customer preferences, while executive opinion gathers insights from higher-level management who may have strategic visions for the company. Second opinions, on the other hand, are generally considered a form of validation or additional input rather than a formal forecasting method. They do not structure a predictive model but rather serve to corroborate or challenge existing forecasts or decisions. Thus, it does not fit into the category of methods specifically aimed at generating forecasts based on judgment and opinion.